Predicting the
future is it possible?
Can you predict the future of your industry? Can you predict the
future of your business? No one can say with certainty what will
happen next week much less one year from now. And five years? Not a
chance.
Yogi Berra reportedly
said, 'Its hard to make predictions, especially about the
future.'
Everyone agrees. Predicting the future is hard. It is so hard
that a fifty percent success rate is considered extraordinary for a
professional futurist. In other words, the professionals are wrong
at least half of the time.
And yet businesses try to predict the future all of the time. In
fact, there are three basic business tools which require
future
predictions:
Future
Revenues
At the most primitive level businesses predict
future revenues. For better or worse 'estimated future revenues'
figures govern many of our proposed business decisions. These
estimated figures are often wrong but we nonetheless establish
spending patterns for years to come based upon this guesswork.
Industry Scenarios
One level up from revenue predictions is the
prediction of industry scenarios in which we try and guess what are
competitors are likely to do in the future.
Strategic Planning
The most complex level of predictions takes place
in strategic planning. Most high-performing businesses set annual
and long-term objectives and develop plans to meet those
objectives. Resource planning, financial planning, market planning,
sales planning and project planning all depend upon how well
businesses predict the future in their strategic plans.
One of the problems with these business tools is
that businesses end up developing 'planned reactions' to
guessed-about future events instead of creating their own plans. A
second problem is that businesses usually measure the success of
these 'planned reactions' based upon whether or not they produce
the predicted results. |
Now heres the rub: All of those
estimates of future revenues, industry scenarios and strategic
plans are based upon predictions which are more than likely wrong.
By measuring success against faulty predictions how can a business
do anything but fail to achieve its goals?
Why should you predict the future if it is such a losing game?
Well, I have a saying: 'The best way to predict the future is to
invent it.'
Instead of using future estimates, predictions and plans to be
reactive to the future be proactive about the future by creating
your own. To move your business Faster Than The Speed Of Change ™
declare the direction in which you want your business to go-invent
your own future. Pick a direction and set plans in action to take
advantage of and profit from that direction.
You may end up exactly where you said you were going. Then
again, you may not. Along the way you may shift completely-your
northward heading now facing east and your west now facing south.
But you will get somewhere and that somewhere will probably be much
farther along and much closer to your declared direction than if
you had no direction and only 'reaction plans.'
Declarations, predictions, and, yes, even strategic plans have a
way of focusing our attention and mobilizing our efforts far more
effectively than random action, or worse still, just plodding along
with no sense of the future.
A boldly conceived and declared future energizes everyone in
your enterprise. We never fail to be excited and inspired by what
art historian Kenneth Clark called 'the shock of the new.' And, by
inventing the future you may alter the competitive landscape ands
bring into being changes so great that they didnt exist before.
You see, the future is really whatever we say it is going to be.
Once we decide what is possible, become inspired by the possible,
commit our resources, time and energy to achieving specific
objectives, we can turn future possibilities into reality.
Better than even money says youll be wrong if you predict the
future. I say, youll be right if you invent your own future.
Business Coach and Strategist, Paul Lemberg is the President of
Quantum Growth Coaching, the worlds only fully systemized business
coaching program designed to create More Profits and More Life™ for
entrepreneurs.
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